Back
SRCIC
The Belt and Road Initiative: Alexander Tomov
16 Apr 2019

 

 

16 April, 2019, Guangming Daily released one article by Prof. Alexander Tomov, Former Deputy Prime Minister of Bulgaria and Senior Adviser of SRCIC, in Chinses version under the theme of the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

Link: 

http://epaper.gmw.cn/gmrb/html/2019-04/16/nw.D110000gmrb_20190416_1-12.htm

 

 

 

 

Please read the original for details.

 

2019 is a remarkable year. During this year we will celebrate events with historical meaning. Among them is the 70th anniversary from the founding of the People’s Republic of China.  One of the first counties who have recognized PRC in 1949 was Bulgaria. These days this fact is pointed out as a successful and very important diplomatic action of the foreign policy of Bulgaria. Despite the political and other changes in the last seventy years, Bulgarian people have always respected the friendship and good relations between the two countries.

 

The interest towards China among the young Bulgarians is increasing in the context of economic success of China and especially the achievements of PRC in the high-tech industries. In relation with this the landing on the opposite side of the Moon by the spacecraft “Chang’e-4” proves the whole world the huge capabilities of Chinese science and technology.

 

Very big impression makes the circumstance that China has achieved almost 10% average year growth during the last three decades. What’s  more these results have been achieved while reducing the number of poor people constantly. During his new-year speech Xi Jinping underlined that “125 poor regions and 10 million villagers have come out from poverty”. The simultaneous achievement of high temps of growth and the formation of big middle class is a remarkable success of PRC for which many countries still dream of.

 

In my consequent researches I am trying to prove that the “socialization of the capital and the capitalization of labour” are two key processes for modern societies. This means that the private companies have to fight not only for profits but also have their own social responsibility in front of their employees and also in front of the whole society. On the other side as many interests of the employees are linked and are common with the interests of the capital, the more effective the production process itself is and therefore the more the trust of working people towards their country will increase.

 

The experience of many Chinese private companies in this relation becomes object of increasing scientific interest and researches around the world. The link between state and private companies, state banks – private companies as well as the methods for keeping the high economic growth are in the base of what we can name as “Chinese economic model”. This is a whole system of relations which is in fact a big, as importance, social innovation.

 

In the last decades was made an attempt to force one global liberal mode. My colleague prof. Francis Fukuyama became famous with his thesis for the end of history and the world domination of USA liberal model. The history of humanity however does not end. It is a mistake to be forced for implementation the same type of social models throughout different countries. On the opposite, the competition between the different governing models in USA, Europe and China will objectively prove which model provides higher social harmony, how is achieved highest economic growth, how this growth improves the lives of ordinary people.

 

The differentiation of several different models of economic growth is expression of the diversity of world development, of different historical and cultural specifications of peoples. It is not democratic to reject the experience of one or another country only because it is different than another. Even more unacceptable is the successes of one or another state and peoples to be limited or restricted with trade wars and administrative obstacles. If the policy of trade limitations and trade wars dominates this can lead the world economy to recession in the end of 2019 or in 2020. The descending economic cycle can turn itself into a heavy economic recession which will be a loss for all countries.

 

Today the majority scientists-economists warn about the danger from trade wars, especially between the big world powers. If we want not to repeat the mistakes of the global financial crisis from 2008-2010 we have to calm down the world financial markets and to stimulate with all possible means the policy of openness and world trade. This is the only possible solution while having the tension created between main leading countries.

 

The last forecasts of the Institute for international finances show that in 2019 China will have growth of 6,2%, India – 7,2%, USA – 2,3%, Eurozone – 1,8%. This forecasts clearly show the increasing dynamics of economies in Asia compared to the economy in USA and especially in Europe. Is it possible this forecast to be changed with change in the conditions for trading and creation of trade wars? According to me – no! 

 

Today in the world we have two dominating geopolitical views. The first is related with the politics of absolute priority of the national interest, of the not taking into account the interest of other peoples, of the bilateral pressure via which stronger countries press the weaker ones. The other policy is the policy of openness, of peaceful competition of economic and political models, of goods and services, of multilateral global cooperation.

 

The first from these policies is the one contra globalization and no matter if it wants or not this policy will clash with the progress and development of modern communications. Globalization cannot be stopped. Internet, satellites, artificial intelligence will continue to connect people, no matter of the limitations. Policy of national and political egoism cannot exist too long. It can only have a temporary existence.

 

Deep analysis show that if the policy of national egoism causes trade wars this will influence the global economic growth  and will hit back like a boomerang the countries which initiate these trade wars. This is why neither new “cold” wars, neither trade wars can lead the world to better existence.

 

When in 2013 Chinese president Xi Jinping announced the “One Belt One Road” also known as “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), many politicians perceived it as a short-term and regional initiative. Now, 5 years later, it is obvious that the “Silk Road” does not have regional but global character. This is a new philosophy, new understanding for the modern world, for the common existence of peoples, economies and cultures. Today in many countries nationalism is fashionable as well as populism and political egoism. BRI, on the opposite,  is a philosophy of the openness, of mutual protection of the interest of both bigger and smaller countries.

 

The strength of BRI is that this policy coincides with the logic of the world progress, with the bigger mutual dependence of the countries created by the modern communications, with the mutual care for climate, peace and natural resources. This is why I think and firmly believe that the BRI will have growing importance for the tomorrow of the mankind. This initiative is very possible to be followed by other similar initiatives, based on openness, mutuality and peaceful co-existence.

 

The old type globalization based on the self-regulation of the markets has led to many imbalances not only in separate regions but also inside some big countries. Possibly now the world enters in a process of searching of new balancing of finances, of currencies, of trade relations. This will be a long and obviously difficult process. In this picture bright impression makes the concept of president Xi Jinping for “Shared future for the mankind”. This concept and its practical realization in the BRI is important pillar in building the philosophy for the new world order and for the multipolar world. Its importance and vision is the fact that it connects the idea for the multipolar world with the idea for peace, mutual guarantees for security and the idea for fair trade relations. 

 

Many people today pose the question why the BRI has received support in so many countries. More than half of all countries in Asia, Europe, Africa, Latin America. The main reason, according to me, is that the big number of world population seeks for solution for shared development and does not want to accept the policy of populism and national egoism. That is why this initiative has its bright future and its multimillion audience.

 

The next few years will be years of going down trend in the world economics. The possibilities for low interest rates and pouring quantitative easings by the Central Banks are almost over. Low global growth and higher than the current inflation are expected. Some economists believe that in such conditions the importance of initiatives like the BRI will decrease. My opinion is exactly the opposite. These countries which in conditions of low economic cycle succeed to provide higher production rate and bigger export of goods and services will receive higher authority, prestige and importance in the world. This is valid both for big and small countries.

 

That is why is right BRI to be considered not only as a bridge for investments and goods but also as a bridge for cultural and traditions exchange between the different peoples. Shared future for the mankind – this is the universal formula for mutuality and common progress.

 

Prof. Alexander Tomov

Jan. 2019